Electoral Information




Yarmuth Quote:


2016 election:

Kentucky's third district has, for a number of years, been a blue bubble.  In terms of house and presidential elections it stands out in contrast to Kentucky's "red sea".  Pictured on the left is a map of the 2016 presidential election in Kentucky, only two sections went blue and Kentucky's third was the only full congressional district to go blue.

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2018 Elections:

In the 2018 election, John Yarmuth beat out his republican,  competitor by a margin of around 37%.  Though Yarmuth won with 62% of the vote, his republican competitor, Vicky Yates Glisson, came closer to triumphing over him than any republican has since he took office.  Democrats in this district don't experience the same kind of victory with other elected offices in this district.  Democrats lost the Gubernatorial and Senate races in 2018 by significantly narrow margins, about 5% and 8% respectively.

Campaign finance:



John Yarmuth recieves the majority of his industry donations from retirees, public sector unions, health professionals, building trade unions, and industrial unions.  The majority of his total funding comes from PAC contributors.


Campaign spending in 2018 for John Yarmuth was proportionally similar to previous years.


Yarmuth is a supporter campaign finance reform.


Major issues in Louisville:

 John Yarmuth has expressed opinions on issues now rearing themselves in Louisville's local and Kentucky state governments.  On uber prevalent topics taking place in local government right now, like gun control and armed officers in schools, Yarmuth takes a hard liberal stance.  He's for abortion and against targeted transgender legislation. 

In DC, Louisville has a lot of health care and shipping industry Yarmuth represents.  On issues concerning medicare, mental health, and overall expansion of access to medical services he often votes yea. 

So, what does this mean for Yarmuth's future and the future of his district?:


Left is an election map of the district house race from 2018, noticeably trending blue.

Because of Yarmuth's status in Washington, the current democratic push, and his electoral track record, it's easy to speculate that he will maintain his seat in the next election against his Republican and Independent competitors.

The primary election outlook for Yarmuth is up to similar speculation.  However it's safe to say that Yarmuth, being an incumbent, ranking member of the Budget Committee, and having a historic monopoly on the affection of his constituents, would be hard pressed to find a significant democratic challenger. He has, on occasion, run unopposed by other democrats and when the primary does present another candidate, they normally score around 13%.

Clinton won in this district by 14.9 points in 2016, but without candidates and issues firmly established, projecting for the presidential race in 2020 is difficult.  Hillary Clinton and John Yarmuth toured Louisville together during the campaign where he endorsed her.  This district does lean blue but without proper campaigning and Yarmuth's support, republicans stand a much higher chance of winning this district in 2020. 



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